If you can’t control or predict the future, how can you prepare for it? Uncertainty can be scary, but can it also be a source of hope or opportunity?
Our series of seven illustrated stories draw on lessons from pastoralists – experts at living with uncertainty and making the most of it. Their ways of life can also help us think about how to live in an uncertain world.
Animation: Uncertain Worlds
Watch a short video introducing the series.
Book: Navigating Uncertainty
Navigating Uncertainty: Radical Rethinking for a Turbulent World
by Ian Scoones, Polity Press
Published 2024
With chapters on finance and banking, technology, critical infrastructures, pandemics, disasters and climate change, Navigating Uncertainty draws lessons from pastoralists and others for wider society.
Read the stories
The series includes seven stories about uncertainty in the worlds of economics, finance, pandemics, migration, humanitarian aid, insurance and knowledge.
The stories are a collaboration between Brighton-based artist Daniel Locke and the authors of the academic research papers on which each story is based. Next to each story, you’ll also find links to the original papers, available to read open access.
Uncertain Worlds #1: Lessons from Pastoralists
Read the comic
About the research
Uncertainty is all around. How does the policy world respond? Dominant approaches are often about exerting control, but it is possible to take a more open, caring approach to uncertainties.
Read the paper
Confronting uncertainties in pastoral areas: transforming development from control to care
Ian Scoones, Social Anthropology, June 2023
Uncertain Worlds #2: Economics, banking and finance
Read the comic
About the research
The financial crash of 2007-8 exposed the banking system’s reliance on complex algorithms and models.
Could bankers and economists rediscover older ideas about uncertainties and ‘unknown unknowns’, and what could they learn from pastoralists?
Read the paper
Economics for an uncertain world
George F. DeMartino, Ilene Grabel and Ian Scoones (World Development, January 2024, published online first)
Uncertain Worlds #3: Migration
Read the comic
About the research
Many migration policies focus on stability, regularity and control. But the lives of migrants themselves are often uncertain, unpredictable and variable. How could policy makers learn from the strategies and experiences of people on the move?
Read the paper
Embracing uncertainty: rethinking migration policy through pastoralists’ experiences
Natasha Maru, Michele Nori, Ian Scoones, Greta Semplici and Anna Triandafyllidou, Comparative Migration Studies, January 2022
Uncertain Worlds #4: Pandemics
Read the comic
About the research
When disease outbreaks occur, policies often try to control or manage them.
But pandemics are uncertain and unpredictable. Taking account of varied knowledges, cultures and settings could help with more flexible responses over time and space.
Read the paper
Rethinking disease preparedness: incertitude and the politics of knowledge
Melissa Leach, Hayley MacGregor, Santiago Ripoll, Ian Scoones and Annie Wilkinson, Critical Public Health, February 2021.
Uncertain Worlds #5: Social Assistance and Humanitarian Relief
Read the comic
About the research
In conflicts, crises and disasters, uncertainties are common.
So why are many humanitarian, social assistance and disaster relief operations based on risk assessment and management, where stability and predictability are assumed?
Read the paper
Providing social assistance and humanitarian relief: The case for embracing uncertainty
Matteo Caravani, Jeremy Lind, Rachel Sabates-Wheeler and Ian Scoones, Development Policy Review, December 2021
Uncertain Worlds #6: Insurance and Moral Economy
Read the comic
About the research
Insurance is increasingly offered to pastoralists as a way to protect against loss from droughts, floods and other hazards. But pastoralists also draw on older practices of mobility, sharing and moral economy.
Read the paper
Uncertainty in the drylands: Rethinking in/formal insurance from pastoral East Africa
Leigh Johnson, Tahira Mohamed, Ian Scoones and Masresha Taye, Environmental and Planning A: Economy and Space, May 2023
Uncertain Worlds #7: High Reliability Knowledge Networks
Read the comic
About the research
Critical infrastructures like power stations, electricity grids and air traffic control need to be highly reliable, despite variability and surprise. Pastoralism can be thought of as a ‘critical infrastructure’ too. It depends on strong local knowledge networks, as well as ‘reliability professionals’ who connect knowledge and people together.
Read the paper
High Reliability Knowledge Networks: Responding to Animal Diseases in a Pastoral Area of Northern Kenya
Alex Tasker and Ian Scoones, The Journal of Development Studies, January 2022
Exhibition: Uncertain Worlds
Large scale printed versions of the comics were shown in October 2023 at a live exhibition, Uncertain Worlds.
The exhibition was shown at the Phoenix Art Space in Brighton, UK from 25-29 October 2023. It was a free exhibition open to the public.
Book: Navigating Uncertainty
Navigating Uncertainty: Radical Rethinking for a Turbulent World
by Ian Scoones
Published in 2024 by Polity Press
available Open Access (forthcoming)
With chapters on finance and banking, technology, critical infrastructures, pandemics, disasters and climate change, Navigating Uncertainty draws lessons from pastoralists and others for wider society.
About the book
Uncertainties are everywhere. Whether it’s climate change, financial volatility, pandemic outbreaks or new technologies, we don’t know what the future will hold. For many contemporary challenges, navigating uncertainty – where we cannot predict what may happen – is essential and, as the book explores, this is much more than just managing risk. But how is this done, and what can we learn from different contexts about responding to and living with uncertainty? Indeed, what might it mean to live from uncertainty?
Drawing on experiences from across the world, the chapters in this book explore finance and banking, technology regulation, critical infrastructures, pandemics, natural disasters and climate change. Each chapter contrasts an approach centred on risk and control, where we assume we know about and can manage the future, with one that is more flexible, responding to uncertainty.
The book argues that we need to adjust our modernist, controlling view and to develop new approaches, including some reclaimed and adapted from previous times or different cultures. This requires a radical rethinking of policies, institutions and practices for successfully navigating uncertainties in an increasingly turbulent world.
Pastoralism, Uncertainty and Resilience - PASTRES 